realtimestrategy Join the waiting list

Kennisbank

What an acquisition does to the AI assumptions underlying your strategy

The moment, not the method

An acquisition changes who is responsible for a plan. It does not automatically change the assumptions on which that plan rests. Two companies come together, and with them two sets of assumptions about which work people do and which work AI takes over. Those two sets are rarely the same, and rarely both still valid on the day of the deal.

That is what makes this moment distinct. Not that something goes wrong, but that suddenly two versions of reality sit side by side that could previously exist independently of each other. Company A assumed that a task remains human work. Company B has already partly transferred that task, or something very similar, to AI, with an employee approving or rejecting the outcome. Both assumptions were defensible at their own moment. Combined, they cannot both stand.

Why the question surfaces here

Before an acquisition, there was no occasion to test the other party's assumptions against your own. Everyone worked within their own framework, and that framework did not need to match another company's. After the acquisition, it does. Reporting lines, capacity planning, and post-acquisition synergy plans assume that work is organized in a certain way — and that is precisely the level at which AI has been advancing recently, in parts, with varying degrees of oversight per team.

The shift does not lie in the acquisition itself. It lies in the fact that the acquisition is the moment at which no one can avoid laying both sides' assumptions side by side, out loud. What was still a task for a team at company A may already be a task performed by a system under the oversight of a single person at company B. That difference was invisible to the other party before the acquisition. After the acquisition, it is a planning question.

What you can establish now

You can currently establish which assumptions the two organizations have explicitly made about AI taking over work, and whether those assumptions contradict each other. You can establish when each assumption was last checked — not whether it was ever correct, but whether it still holds today. And you can establish where the two organizations have set up oversight differently: one team has an AI outcome approved by a senior employee, the other by an automated check. That difference is measurable, even though it has not yet been resolved.

You cannot currently establish whether one of the two assumption systems is the correct one. That depends on the work itself, on the regulations applicable to both companies, and on how mature the oversight is in practice — something that cannot be established in a single round. To the extent this question touches on personnel decisions, separate legal requirements apply to those; they are not commented on or substantiated here.

Why the difference runs by company

Not every company within an acquisition is at the same point. One company has already had AI's takeover of work measured in parts, with a list of tasks that have been transferred, tasks that run under oversight, and tasks that remain human work. The other company has never made that classification and still works from an organizational chart that is three years old. That difference does not arise from unwillingness, but from timing: one company had the question land on its desk earlier, for instance during annual planning or during an earlier change at the top, and organized an answer to it at that time.

The underlying question — which work in this specific, combined company can genuinely be taken over by AI, can be partly taken over with oversight, or remains human work — is answered per task by the work scan from FTE TO AI, independent of whichever assumption each of the two companies previously held.

What this means for who is at the table now

An acquisition often brings more people to the table than an ordinary strategy review: two executive teams, possibly an integration team, sometimes a supervisory board overseeing the synergy targets. Exactly who needs to be involved in testing the assumptions depends on who made the assumptions and who must bear them after the merger — a question that can be considered separately on the page about composing a strategy review.

If the acquisition is part of an ongoing multi-year plan held by one of the two parties, the question shifts further: not only which assumptions are currently correct, but whether the plan itself can absorb the merger without the underlying figures remaining static — something addressed in testing assumptions halfway through a multi-year plan.

What you can do now

An acquisition offers no time to wait for the annual cycle, and no room to combine two companies' assumptions untested. What is possible: place the most important assumptions from both sides side by side and establish, for each assumption, when it was last confirmed. That is precisely what the free assumption check is for — a short round in which you name your most important assumptions and immediately see which have been checked recently and which have not. The full proof, with sector data, regulatory clocks, and a self-plot of the combined executive team side by side, is under construction.

Colossusde assistent van de strategische drukproef

Stel uw vraag. Vaak zit de echte vraag een laag dieper — daar mag ik naar vragen.

Answers come from this site’s knowledge base. Not tailored advice, and not a scan of your company.