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How do you know whether your strategy is working, even before the annual figures are in

You don't measure it against revenue, because that comes too late. You measure it against the gap between what the outside world is doing and what the board thinks the outside world is doing. That gap is already visible today, not only once it appears in the annual accounts.

Why annual figures are the wrong yardstick

Annual figures show what has happened, not what is going to happen. At a production company with 120 employees, the figures for the first quarter can still look fine, while the order book has already been shrinking for three months because of a competitor delivering faster. Anyone who waits for the quarterly report only sees the problem once it has already hit revenue. A strategy works or doesn't work based on signals that arrive earlier: customer request behaviour, the regulator's tone, competitor moves. Those signals are continuous, figures are periodic.

The outside view next to the inside view

A usable test consists of two sides placed next to each other. One side is external: what is happening in terms of trends, regulation and competitor moves, independent of what the board thinks about it. The other side is internal: how each board member individually plots the strategic pressure on a number of axes. At a service provider with 80 employees, the external pressure on digitalisation turned out to be high, while none of the board members had assessed it as urgent. That difference between outside and inside is measurable, even while annual revenue is still stable. It is precisely this gap that provides an early warning: not the outcome of the strategy, but the distance between the assumption behind it and the reality outside it.

The spread within the board itself

Alongside the gap with the outside world, there is a second signal: how far apart the board members are from one another. At a wholesaler with 200 employees, the commercial director plotted the pressure from price competition as low, while the operations director assessed it as high, based on signals he heard daily from suppliers. Such a spread is not necessarily a problem, but it is a signal that calls for explanation. Why do views within a board team diverge is exactly the question that becomes relevant at that point, because the spread often says more about who receives which information than about the strategy itself. A strategy that on paper is supported by the entire board can in practice rest on five different assumptions. That becomes visible the moment you place the individual plots side by side, not when the annual figures appear.

Regulation as an early indicator

Regulation is one of the few external signals that are often visible years in advance, and yet is structurally missed because it doesn't appear on the board agenda until it becomes acute. At a care institution with 150 employees, an upcoming change in quality standards had been on the compliance department's radar for two years before the board addressed it in a meeting. By that time, the time available to adapt had already been halved. How you get regulation structurally onto the board agenda largely determines whether this kind of signal lands in time or only becomes visible once it already carries costs with it. A strategy that does not respond to what is already known externally often still works on paper, but no longer in practice.

What you can already see today

There is a free mini-test of ten questions that gives an indication of your organisation's pressure profile at this moment, without requiring an annual figure for it. Those ten questions show on which of the five axes the pressure is highest, and whether that picture matches what is happening externally. For a board team that notices the answers diverge widely among themselves, or that the external picture does not match the internal one, the next question is no longer whether the strategy is correct, but whether someone from outside the team can objectively look along. What a strategic second opinion is and when you need one then depends on how large that gap is and how heavily the consequences weigh if it goes unnoticed.

The next step is that these five axes and that spread need to translate into who in the organisation picks up which work, for how many hours, and in which system that is recorded. Anyone wanting to know what a decision agenda concretely means for the tasks, hours and responsibilities of their own people ends up at the work scan on ftetoai.com.

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Answers come from this site’s knowledge base. Not tailored advice, and not a scan of your company.